Forrester Future-Of-Jobs Forecast: 12 Million European Jobs Will Be Lost to Automation by 2040
Forrester forecasts that 34% of jobs in Europe are at risk, and 12 million jobs will be lost to automation in Europe-5 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK) by 2040.
While the coronavirus pandemic continues to push European businesses to invest in automation more actively and quickly, it is not the only factor behind the predicted job losses.
According to Forrester's Future-Of-Jobs forecast for 2020–2040 (Europe-5), workers with little bargaining power are most at risk of losing their jobs, especially in countries where many of them are tied to casual employment contracts, including zero-hours contracts in the UK that do not guarantee working hours, or work part-time at low wages, such as "mini-jobs" in Germany.
Job losses from automation will subsequently affect European workers in wholesale and retail trade, transport, housing, catering, and leisure and hospitality on a broader scale. However, green energy and automation will create 9 million new jobs in Europe-5 by 2040, particularly in clean energy, green buildings and smart cities.
The key findings of the analysts' forecast include:
- Europe's aging population is a ticking demographic time bomb. By 2050, Europe-5 will have 30 million fewer working-age people than in 2020. European businesses need to implement automation to fill the gaps in an aging workforce.
- Boosting productivity and improving remote work is a top priority. Countries including France, Germany, Italy and Spain, where industry, construction and agriculture account for a large share of their economies, are investing more in industrial automation to raise productivity.
- The strict definition of work is starting to break down. Rather than viewing automation as a replacement for work, European organizations are beginning to assess the skills of people and machines when performing various tasks, including managing and updating HR management systems or developing training programs. While some jobs will be lost, others will be created and transformed as new skills become desirable.
- Mid-skilled jobs consisting of simple routine tasks are most at risk of automation. Routine jobs make up 38% of the workforce in Germany, 34% in France and 31% in the UK. 49 million jobs in Europe-5 are at risk from automation. As a result, European organizations will invest in low-carbon jobs and upskill employees. Soft skills such as active learning, resilience, stress tolerance and flexibility, which robots are not known for, will complement automated work tasks and become more in demand.
“The productivity loss caused by COVID-19 is pushing companies worldwide to automate manual processes and improve remote work. However, the pandemic is only one of the factors that will shape the future of work in Europe over the next two decades. European organizations are also in a particularly advantageous position to adopt automation due to the shrinking working-age population in Europe and the large number of routine low-skilled jobs that can be easily automated. Subsequently, automation will become an integral part of how European governments and employers view their competitiveness and manage their older demographic”
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A study by the Swedish Institute for Evaluation of the Labour Market and Education Policy (IFAU) says that in the near future artificial intelligence will replace human specialists in about 30 common occupations.
Algorithms will be able to perform much of the work of postal workers, welders, blacksmiths, bakers, machinists, retail sellers, cashiers, photo models and accountants. In addition, AI may replace some doctors, in particular radiologists, gynecologists and orthopedists.
According to the study, today 53% of jobs in Sweden — about 2.49 million people out of the total workforce — are at risk due to digitalization.
